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《科学》(20200731出版)一周论文导读_自然频道_东方

发布日期:2020-08-06 00:43   来源:未知   阅读:

编译 | 冯维维

Science,31 July 2020,Vol 369, Issue 6503

《科学》2020年7月31日,第369卷,6503期

物理学Physics

A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares

基于物理方法预测大规模太阳耀斑

▲ 作者:Kanya Kusano, Tomoya Iju, Yumi Bamba

▲ 链接:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6503/587

▲ 摘要

太阳磁场的突然释放会引发强烈的太阳耀斑,这是很难预测的。作者为大型太阳耀斑的爆发推导了基于物理的阈值,并展示了如何通过常规太阳观测预测它们。作者利用2008年到2019年对太阳的观测测试了他们的方法。

在大多数情况下,该方法正确地识别出哪些区域将在未来20小时内产生大的耀斑,尽管存在一些误报和误报。该方法还提供了每次耀斑开始的确切位置以及其强度的限制。对太阳耀斑的准确预测可以改善对地球周围空间天气状况的预测。

▲ Abstract

The sudden release of magnetic energy on the Sun drives powerful solar flares, which are difficult to predict. Kusano et al. derived physics-based thresholds for the onset of large solar flares and show how they can be predicted from routine solar observations. They tested their method using observations of the Sun from 2008 to 2019. In most cases, the method correctly identifies which regions will produce large flares within the next 20 hours, although there are some false positives and false negatives. The method also provides the exact location where each flare will begin and limits on how powerful it will be. Accurate predictions of solar flares could improve forecasts of space weather conditions around Earth.